A cornerstone of individual cardiovascular risk prediction is the blood concentration of lipoproteins containing apolipoprotein B, particularly non-HDL and LDL cholesterol. The benefit of lipid-lowering strategies has been proven by numerous studies. Today, conventional guidelines recommend the implementation of lipid lowering therapy for cardiovascular primary prevention on the basis of a person’s 10-year cardiovascular risk. This risk assessment, however, might fail to take proper account of the personal long-term risk, particularly in younger individuals. As published in The Lancet 2019, we provided the most comprehensive analysis of long-term cardiovascular risk associated with non-HDL cholesterol. On this basis, we developed a risk tool to estimate the individual cardiovascular long-term risk and to calculate the potential long-term benefit of a lipid-lowering strategy in individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease.

1 The risk calculator

The individual long-term risk to suffer from cardiovascular disease as well as the potential risk reduction by the age of 75 years due to the reduction of non-HDL cholesterol can be calculated using the following risk tool. All calculations are based on the original publication.


Arterial hypertension
Diabetes mellitus
Currently smoking

* By clicking on the "Calculate"-button you acknowledge the complete disclaimer. Calculations are based on the original publication.

The risk calculator information

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Arterial hypertension
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Diabetes mellitus
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Currently smoking
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2 Simulated non-HDL reduction

The potentially achievable cardiovascular risk reduction by the age of 75 years can be calculated according to the targeted reduction of non-HDL cholesterol.

Simulated reduction of non-HDL cholesterol baseline concentration

Please calcualte first a base probability with the risk calculator above.


Derivation and validation analyses of the provided risk tool were based on the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. Only cohorts that had available data on non-fatal and fatal cardiovascular disease endpoints were used. Approximately 400,000 individuals without history of cardiovascular disease were harmonized and analyzed in one dataset on an individual-data level. Details are provided in the original publication.

Contributing cohorts

BRHSGreat Britain
Brianza Study, MONICAItaly
Catalonia Study, MONICASpain
DanMONICA Study, RCPHDenmark
Dubbo study of the elderlyAustralia
ESTHER StudyGermany
Friuli Study, MONICAItaly
Heinz Nixdorf RECALLGermany
Kaunas StudyLithuania
MATISS Rome StudyItaly
Moli-Sani StudyItaly
Northern Sweden Study, MONICASweden
Novosibirsk StudyRussia
PREVENDThe Netherlands
PRIMEUnited Kingdom and France
Rotterdam StudyThe Netherlands
Tromsø StudyNorway
Warsaw StudyPoland
Co-authors and collaborators

Fabian J Brunner, Christoph Waldeyer, Francisco Ojeda, Veikko Salomaa, Frank Kee, Susana Sans, Barbara Thorand, Simona Giampaoli, Paolo Brambilla, Hugh Tunstall-Pedoe, Marie Moitry, Licia Iacoviello, Giovanni Veronesi, Guido Grassi, Ellisiv B Mathiesen, Stefan Söderberg, Allan Linneberg, Hermann Brenner, Philippe Amouyel, Jean Ferrières, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Yuriy P Nikitin, Wojciech Drygas, Olle Melander, Karl-Heinz Jöckel, David M Leistner, Jonathan E Shaw, Demosthenes B Panagiotakos, Leon A Simons, Maryam Kavousi, Ramachandran S Vasan, Robin P F Dullaart, S Goya Wannamethee, Ulf Risérus, Steven Shea, James A de Lemos, Torbjørn Omland, Kari Kuulasmaa, Ulf Landmesser, Stefan Blankenberg

Tanja Zeller, Jukka Kontto, Satu Männistö, Andres Metspalu, Karl Lackner, Philipp Wild, Annette Peters, Christa Meisinger, Chiara Donfrancesco, Stefano G. Signorini, Maris Alver, Mark Woodward, Francesco Gianfagna, Simona Costanzo, Tom Wilsgaard, Mats Eliasson, Torben Jørgensen, Henry Völzke, Marcus Dörr, Matthias Nauck, Ben Schöttker, Thiess Lorenz, Nataliya Makarova, Raphael Twerenbold, Jean Dallongeville, Annette Dobson, Sofia Malyutina, Andrzej Pajak, Gunnar Engström, Martin Bobak, Börge Schmidt, Tuija Jääskeläinen, Teemu Niiranen, Pekka Jousilahti, Graham Giles, Allison Hodge, Jens Klotsche, Dianna J. Magliano, Magnus N. Lyngbakken, Kristian Hveem, Arnulf Langhammer, Bjørn Olav Åsvold, Christos Pitsavos, Emelia J. Benjamin, Stephan J.L. Bakker, Peter Whincup, M. Kamran Ikram, Martin Ingelsson, Wolfgang Koenig


By using [[the risk tool]] you acknowledge the following aspects:

The provided risk tool is a hypothetical model of long-term cardiovascular risk prediction and the potential benefit of reducing non-HDL cholesterol in individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease. It is limited to the use of physicians only and not for the general public. Any information contained herein should not be understood or used by any person as a substitute for obtaining medical advice or treatment from a physician. The risk tool can only be used in individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease. It should not be used in cardiovascular secondary prevention.

You hereby agree that any medical decision or treatment will be based on a complete clinical assessment and not on this risk score. You also acknowledge that your use of this website is at your own risk. Nothing contained on the website is intended to replace the physician–patient relationship, or to be a substitute for medical advice. Any information provided should be interpreted in the context of a comprehensive professional clinical assessment.